The Rest of Thursday
Weather
An increasingly cloudy, and wet afternoon, although also becoming milder. Then a very strong S’ly wind developing overnight, already gale force 8 by midnight and then severe gale force 9 by 3 or 4am, when it will also be accompanied by lashing sheets of rain. Towards dawn, there will be a sudden shift of wind direction from a S’ly to a WNW’ly, meaning that some places will become quieter while others become noisier, and different parts of the Island will be vulnerable to tree and property damage. Max temp 15-16°C in the evening, only dropping to 12 or 13°C towards the backend of the night.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be about 8 feet and choppy at dawn, becoming 4-6 feet and clean by dusk. Windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions look fun and relatively safe compared to the more extreme conditions of the previous and latter days. Tides will be low in the late morning and 7.6m high around 4:45pm.
Friday
Weather
Severe WNW’ly gales in the morning, possibly touching storm force 10 at times, all easing very gradually in the afternoon and overnight… strong force 7 by dusk, then force 5 to 6 by the end of the night. Temperatures will be a bit of a flatline between 12 and 14°C throughout. Rain will be persistent at times (mainly in the morning and overnight), showery at others (mainly in the afternoon and evening). All of it with the potential for some heavy bursts.
Surf and the Water
Crazy huge turbulent seas, not to be recommended for any aquatic activity really. The baseline tides will be mercifully small, although they will be substantially enhanced by about half a metre of storm surge. High water values, prior to any additional surge, will be 7.8m around 5.15am, and 8.2m around 5:30pm. Low water will be around 11:30am.
The Weekend
Weather
Hardly the breath of fresh air that we would really like to follow Storm Austen. A full day of strong force 6-7 SW’ly winds on Saturday, bringing a relentless drenching of often heavy rain. Then a much drier and brighter Sunday, but with a cooler force 5-6 WNW’ly wind, it will still have us in woolly hats and zipping our jackets all the way to the top. Temps not likely to rise above 14-15°C by day, or fall below 12-13°C by night.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 4-6 foot surf on Saturday, followed choppy 8-10 foot surf on Sunday. That said, the south coast could offer some fairly clean and very rideable waves on that day. Tides will be low around lunchtime and the highs will be a little before dawn and around dusk, getting pretty large and a bit messy on the west coast… increasing incrementally from roughly 8.5m on Saturday morning to 9.3m on Sunday evening.
Next Week
Weather
Generally unsettled through the first three days, with fresh force 5 or strong force 6 SSW’ly winds Monday and Tuesday, veering W’ly on Wednesday. This will bring mostly cloudy skies but with some sunny moments and also some occasional rain or showers. Thursday and Friday currently look mostly sunny and dry though, with moderate force 4 or perhaps fresh force 5 SE’ly winds. I don’t want to promise that just yet, but after a fairly prolonged rough spell, the law of averages makes it seem like a quite reasonable expectation. Temperatures never departing too far from the average for Halloween half term… roughly 12-15°C for the daily maxima and 9-12°C for the nightly minima.
Surf and the Water
Big spring tides all week long, the highs around breakfast time and after dusk, roughly 9.5m Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, then decreasing incrementally until roughly 8.5m on Friday evening. It’s looking like clean surf every day except Wednesday. On average the waves will be 3-6 feet but there may be some slightly bigger and slightly smaller moments. Windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions all looking good too, at least for the first three days.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday morning….
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway