Saturday
Weather
A completely cloudy day and a mostly very wet day. The sporadic overnight showers may continue beyond dawn, but come mid-morning we will simply be looking at persistent rain. Through the afternoon, as the wind goes fairly crazy again (SW’ly, increasing from strong force 6 to gale force 8), the rain will become heavy, such that by the end of the day another 15-25mm of water will have been added to this week’s rainfall total. The temperature on the mild side, floating between 13 and 15°C for the majority of the day and night, only falling back to 12°C some time after midnight. Falling back… oh yes! clocks change tonight.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 5-6 feet and choppy at dawn but pretty clean from mid-morning onward. That said, the afternoon wind will be much stronger than surfers would generally wish for. Probably very exciting for the more experienced windsurfers of the Island though. Low tide will be shortly after midday, and high tide (a very splashy one on the west coast) will be around dusk.
Sunday
Weather
Just a slight improvement in the wind situation, but a massive improvement in the weather. Yes indeed, the west to northwest wind (force 6-7 at dawn, force 5 by dusk) will bring a full day of sunny spells, and only the smallest chance of catching a shower. Furthermore, should any showers manage to bump into the Island then they will be sooo much lighter than any of the previous 3-4 days. Max temp just 13-14°C in most places but probably 14-5°C in Town. If heading out for a much needed walk, then the locations of choice (for their shelter) will be along the coast around Petit Bot, Saints Bay, Moulin Huet and Fermain.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be a total mess, but once again fantastic for windsurfing. The swell will actually be a lot bigger and more powerful than on Saturday though, so there might well be some rare and decently sized cleanish waves to be ridden on the south coast. High tides will be very splashy indeed along the west coast (roughly 9m around 5:30am and 9.2m around 6pm).
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Generally unsettled through the first three days, with fresh force 5 or strong force 6 SSW’ly winds Monday and Tuesday, veering W’ly on Wednesday. This will bring mostly cloudy skies but with some sunny moments and also some occasional rain or showers. Thursday and Friday currently look mostly sunny and dry though, with moderate force 4 or perhaps fresh force 5 SE’ly winds. I don’t want to promise that just yet, but after a fairly prolonged rough spell, the law of averages makes it seem like a quite reasonable expectation. Temperatures never departing too far from the average for Halloween half term… roughly 12-15°C for the daily maxima and 9-12°C for the nightly minima.
Surf and the Water
Big spring tides, generally around 9.5m around dawn and soon after dusk. Big splashes can be expected along all the usual stretches of the west-coast road. Surfers will have cleanish 3-4 foot waves Monday and then very messy 6-8 foot waves on Tuesday. Both days great for windsurfers though.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
It’s a long way off to speak with confidence about Friday, but there is a chance of wet and windy weather returning then. On the plus side though, Wednesday and Thursday are looking dry and sunny, with a mild and gentle SE’ly breezes taking daytime temperatures to a very pleasant-feeling 15-16°C. Potentially quite cold overnight though, with single-figure mins feeling highly appropriate for the cusp of Halloween.
Surf and the Water
Clean waves that will generally be great for surfing. 5-6 feet gradually relaxing to 4 feet through Wednesday, maintaining that size through Thursday (probably the best day of all), and then decreasing to 2-3 feet on Friday. Great weather, and generally more relaxed conditions for swimmers to take advantage of though, although if you haven’t swam in the sea for a month or two then you should be prepared for it to be about 4-5°C cooler. If you are swimming then it would be wise to stick to a beach that’s protected from the swell, because that (combined with the spring tides) will make for strong currents wherever the water moves most. High water will be around breakfast time and after dusk (decreasing incrementally from 9.5m on Wednesday morning to 8.5m on Friday evening). Low water will be in the early afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Monday and Tuesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway